Q4 is a vital time for financial institutions to drive purchase volume and deepen engagement. But this year, the strategy to capture share-of-wallet may look different.
According to a report from McKinsey1, while nearly half (46%) of U.S. consumers feel optimistic about the economy, their spending is cautious and calculated. Inflation remains the top concern, and tariff-related uncertainty is shaping behavior, with many households shifting to essentials and delaying discretionary purchases.
The takeaway? Consumers are still spending—but with purpose. And that’s exactly where banks, credit unions, and loyalty programs can make an impact.
Q4 Purchase Volume: Where Consumers Are Spending—and Pulling Back
Understanding where consumers plan to spend is critical to staying relevant and improving card usage. McKinsey1 reports that:
- Spending is holding steady in essential categories like groceries, fuel, and home utilities.
- Holiday travel remains a bright spot, especially among Millennials and Gen X.
- Discretionary purchases—like apparel, electronics, and dining out—are most at risk, with 50% of consumers planning to delay them.
This intentionality doesn’t mean disengagement. It means financial institutions must meet cardholders where they are, offering loyalty rewards that reflect their priorities and help them stretch every dollar.
Loyalty Rewards’ Role in Sustaining Purchase Volume
According to the 2025 PYMNTS Beyond Points and Perks2 report, 75.4% of cardholders say they are positively influenced by card-linked offers that are simple and convenient, while 74% value offers that align with planned purchases. This signals that ease, timing, and financial alignment are key to sustaining purchase volume in an intentional economy.
For financial institutions, this means loyalty must deliver:
- Real-time value: Point-of-sale redemptions offer immediate savings and reinforce relevance.
- Essential category alignment: Groceries, fuel, utilities, and travel are leading the Q4 spend curve.
- Promotional clarity: 2X points offers can improve card usage when tied to meaningful, high-frequency categories.
- Purposeful positioning: Loyalty programs positioning rewards as money-saving tools, not just indulgences, align with consumer mindsets.
Boost Purchase Volume Through Targeted Promotions
Caution doesn’t cancel opportunity. It sharpens it.
Even amid selective spending, bonus point promotions remain an effective way to drive card engagement, especially when offers feel timely and tied to cardholders’ existing habits.
- Tie 2X points offers to seasonal needs, like Black Friday shopping.
- Use bonus points to reward real-world moments, like holiday travel.
- Reinforce financial utility in messaging: “Make your money go further” resonates more than “treat yourself.”
The takeaway? Q4 2025 isn’t about cutting back; it’s about spending with purpose. And loyalty strategies that help cardholders save on what matters most will outperform those offering generic perks.
By positioning rewards as a means to optimize budgets, support essentials, and enrich everyday moments, financial institutions can foster stronger relationships and enhance card usage as we head into 2026.
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Sources:
1McKinsey & Company, The State of the US Consumer, May 2025
2PYMNTS: Beyond Points & Perks.